Tragically, this is not the way things operate in many valleys. What happens when the system is stressed, and levels of anxiety are high? What takes place when there is an invading enemy (such as COVID-19) that is uncaring about the welfare of people living in the valley and is itself quite agile (and invisible). The oscillation continues. Under these conditions, the natural swings of the ball back and forth down the valley can trigger even more anxiety.  This leads to fast, “knee-jerk” reactions–what behavioral economists call the reliance on inappropriate but convenient “heuristics.” Kahneman’s fast, habitual (and rigid) thinking takes over. Decisions are made in a chaotic manner. As a result, the ball often swings back and forth even more violently—and may move to yet another valley. This means that the disfunction of one community or society can result in the virus spreading elsewhere. The blame as well as the virus spreads and intensifies. A perfect storm takes place. We are facing a full- blown, globally destructive pandemic.

Inside the Valley

What does it look like to live and work in a system that experiences the movement of the ball into its own valley? Everyone knows that something terrifying has just come to their organization, community, society. Pretty soon things are in disarray. Something is about to happen. Unfortunately, one can only speculate on what will happen under these conditions of disarray or chaos. The oscillations of the ball are unpredictable (as is the spread of the virus). When the ball is swinging widely from one ridge to the other ridge, it has as great a chance of moving over the top of the left ridge into the adjacent valley as it does of moving over the top of the right ridge into that adjacent valley.

Most of the members of a system (organization, community, society) don’t really know much about (or perhaps even care much about) either of the adjacent valleys. There is always hope that the ball will continue to roll down the current valley without much oscillation or uncertainty. If it does go to another valley, then perhaps it will never return to our valley. Someone else will have to deal with the virus—it is no longer our problem.

Clearly, the ball is not done with the change process. The virus has not discontinued its spread to other communities and regions. The oscillation in any one valley can be attributed, at least at times, to the anxiety and inappropriate actions that have been taken. At other times, the oscillation can take place because the rate of change (speed of the ball) is simply too great for the valley (society) to handle–the faster the speed, the wider the swings The ball may have swung too far and actually rolled up over the top of the ridge into the adjacent valley.

As in the case of the initial oscillations that preceded the ball’s movement into the second valley, the movement into a third valley is preceded by oscillations—though in this case the oscillations are usually quite large. They are quite visible and bigger than what was expected (given what has been conveyed by residents of the previous valleys through which the ball rolled). The virus is now well-known and even more frightening to all involved. Occupants of all the surrounding valleys are increasingly anxious and are likely, as a result, to operate in an inappropriate, thoughtless manner is and when the virus hits their own valley. The virus even more easily wins the day, moving from valley to valley.